비계량 태양광 발전량을 고려한 제주도의 단기 전력수요 예측
© 2025 by the New & Renewable Energy
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Abstract
In 2023, renewable energy accounted for 18.2% of Jeju Island’s electricity demand; however, the continuous expansion of solar and wind power has also resulted in a rapid increase in power curtailment. Expanding renewable energy dissemination and achieving a “Carbon-Free Juju Island” by 2035 requires distributed energy management based on virtual power plants (VPPs) and improved accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF), which is the core technology of VPPs. This study conducted a 24-h advanced electricity load forecasting for 13 years (2010–2022) to identify the correction effect of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power, a major factor in power demand distortion on Jeju Island. The generalized additive model (GAM), which is an extension of a regression model that considers nonlinear factors, was used as the prediction model to distinguish the temperature effect and weekday –weekend characteristics. Because BTM solar power generation had to be estimated using limited data, we assumed that the solar power generation pattern is the same across Jeju Island, further confirming that the prediction accuracy improved when the BTM solar power was corrected. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) decreased from 4.4% to 3.9%, and root mean-square error (RMSE) decreased from 37.9 to 35.2 MW.